Survey Suggests Opoku-Agyemang, Bawumia Could Face Off in 2028 Election

Accra: A new survey suggests that voters favour a presidential contest between Vice President Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang and Former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia in the 2028 elections. The survey, jointly conducted by the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration (GIMPA) and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), a German political foundation, examined voting behaviour in the 2024 elections and succession preferences within the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and New Patriotic Party (NPP) ahead of 2028. According to Ghana News Agency, researchers sampled 16,988 respondents across all 16 regions, with a majority being traders, artisans, and farmers. Among NDC supporters, the report states that Prof Opoku-Agyemang leads the field as a likely successor, with 35.5 percent of respondents ranking her as the most suitable candidate. Other NDC contenders ranked in order were Haruna Iddrisu at 14.9 percent, Okudjeto Ablakwa at 10.2 percent, Asiedu Nketiah at 8.3 percent, and Julius Debrah at 2.2 percent . Notably, 25.6 percent of respondents indicated they don't know who should run on the ticket of the NDC for the 2028 elections. Among NPP supporters, the survey projected a two-horse race between Dr Bawumia, who received 49.3 percent, and Mr Kennedy Agyapong, who garnered 24.6 percent. Other ranked contenders were Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum at 2.6 percent, Dr Bryan Acheampong at 0.8 percent, and Mr Boakye Agyarko at 0.6 percent. Similarly to the NDC, 21 percent of respondents stated they did not know who should lead the NPP in 2028. Although voter intent for 2028 remains high, the report noted early signs of declining enthusiasm compared to previous elections. On factors influencing voter decisions in 2024, the report found that 73 percent of respondents voted based on party manifestos, while 46.2 percent made their choice based on the likeability of presidential aspirants. Dr Joseph A. Darmoe, Director of Programmes at KAS and Senior Lecturer at GIMPA, observed that the strong influence of party manifestos indi cated a shift away from rigid party affiliation towards issue-based voting. He stated, "Voters are moderately moving away from strong party affiliation. Party manifestoes are as critical as your campaign expenditure." Mrs Anna Lena Sabroso Wasserfall, Country Representative of KAS, stated that the study serves as a reference for political parties, civil society, researchers, journalists, policymakers, and engaged citizens. She mentioned, "Our motivation to carry out this study and to make an additional contribution to empirical political discourse in Ghana derives from our self-understanding as a political foundation."