Accra: The Ghanaian Cedi (GHS) is projected to experience a notable appreciation against the United States Dollar (USD) throughout 2025, according to recent projections by the Ghana International Trade and Finance Conference (GITFiC). This projection is informed by a comprehensive analysis that includes economic drivers, technical indicators, and macroeconomic expectations.
According to Ghana News Agency, the GITFiC report highlights that, as of May 24, 2025, the GHS has appreciated by 8.891% on a weekly basis, with the interbank mid-rate reaching 11.07 GHS/USD. This appreciation is attributed to investor confidence following Ghana's successful debt restructuring, improved commodity exports, and decisive interventions by the Bank of Ghana.
On an annual scale, the cedi is projected to appreciate by approximately 28.94% in 2025 compared to its average rate in 2024, indicating a strong recovery trajectory. GITFiC forecasts an average USD/GHS exchange rate of 10.02 for 2025, within a range of 7.09 to 13.16. The cedi is expected to maintain relative strength through the second quarter of 2025, although volatility remains a risk due to domestic import demand and potential shifts in global monetary policy.
The report notes that the cedi's appreciation is supported by several key factors, including successful debt restructuring, firming commodity prices, reduced speculative activity in forex markets, and central bank liquidity interventions. Historical exchange rate data also show a trend of the cedi strengthening from its weakest position of 16.44 GHS/USD in late 2024.
The GITFiC report further outlines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and fiscal reforms in driving the cedi's appreciation. Ghana's trade position has been bolstered by steady commodity export earnings, particularly in gold, cocoa, and oil. Additionally, the Bank of Ghana's foreign exchange interventions and policy rate stability have contributed to price stability and inflation expectations.
Technical indicators such as moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that the cedi remains in a strengthening phase, although short-term corrections may occur. The report also highlights potential risks and volatility factors, including high domestic import demand, inflation, global monetary conditions, and external sector shocks.
GITFiC's recommendations for stakeholders emphasize the importance of structural reforms, hedging strategies for businesses, investment opportunities in GHS-denominated assets, and continued support from development partners. The overall outlook suggests that while short-term corrections are possible, the Ghanaian Cedi is expected to continue its recovery trajectory in 2025.